Posts Tagged ‘democracy in pakistan’
October 15, 2009
What happens when a majority of one country’s citizens opt for martial law but the democratically elected government in power including judicial, executive and legislative branches are against a military takeover? It’s quite the political conundrum because either side offers legitimate democratic authority, but they’re diametrically opposed. A rational answer is to let the democratically elected government fulfill it’s term and allow citizens to elect politicians to office who will support martial law in the next term. That might work in a fully functional democracy backed by institutions that can uphold legitimacy and granted the state is sufficiently secure. However, in light of decreasing security, severe economic downturns and age old skepticism of U.S. actions in Pakistan, ever so gradually the country shifts it’s gaze toward the military.
Decreasing Security :: To offer partial explanation in a nutshell: Since 2001, terrorists fleeing Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, spilled over into Pakistan at the nebulous northern border areas which are historically autonomous from federal regulation. The fact that Pakistan already housed one of the worlds largest refugee populations allowed this spillover a massive and destitute demographic from which to exploit support. As a result, we now see unprecedented terrorism in Pakistan where Al Qaeda and the Taliban had no significant presence prior to 9/11.
Skepticism of U.S.’s Role in Pakistan :: Since the inception of Pakistan in 1947, bilateral realations with the United States have been defined by cooperation wherein Pakistan served as a proxy for U.S. Containment throughout the Cold War (i.e. security pacts like SEATO, CENTCOM, then aiding our Afghan led defense against Soviet incursions in the 1980’s). In exchange, Pakistan’s military with U.S. support, bolstered itself as the strongest, most efficient and stable institution in Pakistan. Some argue civilian governments and democratic institutions were thus never given an opportunity to compete with such a well funded, strongly backed military. And therein we find multifaceted dimensions that help explain the controversy over current U.S. support of Pakistan. Former Pakistan to U.S. ambassador Maleeha Lodhi describes the Kerry Lugar bill:
“the offending part of the legislation sets up the country as hired help and puts the military in the dock, presumed guilty on many counts and having to prove its innocence to Washington”
Pakistan is “hired help”, that’s the crux of skepticism on the Kerry-Lugar bill. Concern is rooted in a long history of cooperation with the United States that some argue created a behemoth military institution costing them a fair chance at democracy. In attempt to address that very concern, the Kerry Lugar bill mentions no military aid in exchange for cooperation on the War on Terror, unlike previous assistance packages from the Cold War. Ironically, bleak affairs in Pakistan now which are partially a result of pervious cooperation, particularly during the Soviet Afhgan war, prompt arguments that the military is exactly what needs support right now. Thus, the Lugar Bill receives not only skepticism from Pakistan’s strongest institution, but increasingly the public.
Although Secretary Clinton and Senators Kerry and Lugar have made no indication of altering the bill, to avoid future skepticism and potential resentment of U.S. involvement in Pakistan it could be wise to make changes so as to not sideline the military at this critical period in our War on Terror. Unlike previous Republican presidencies, the Obama administration is committed to dealing with civilian governments in Pakistan. It’s a noble idea and even though i don’t suspect that as the military gains legitimacy the civilian government will collapse soon, we should think twice before riling such concern over a bill that has just a 5 year life span. Central and South Asia are critical regions for our interests and we may need to engage strategically positioned Pakistan in more years to come. So a backlash by the most powerful institution in that country is something we should anticipate, and work actively against.
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Posted in Pakistan | Tagged Afghan war, afghanistan cold war, afghanistan pakistan border, afghanistan soviet war, afghanistan war on terror, Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda Pakistan, ambassador lodhi, america pakistan, america pakistan politics, america pakistan relations, american pakistani relations, american politics pakistan, biden lugar act, biden lugar bill, biden lugar pakistan, cold war pakistan, Current Affairs, current affairs pakistan, democracy in pakistan, democracy pakistan, democratic pakistan, dick lugar pakistan, enhanced cooperation pakistan act, enhanced cooperation with pakistan act, foreign policy pakistan, foreign policy to pakistan, International Affairs, international affairs in pakistan, international affairs of pakistan, International Affairs Pakistan, international current affairs, international current affairs pakistan, international pakistan politics, international politics, jeewanjee, jeewanjee politics, kerry lugar act, kerry lugar bill, kerry lugar legislation, kerry lugar pakistan bill, kerry lugar pakistan congress, kerry pakistan, Maleeha Lodhi, martial law in pakistan, martial law pakistan, military in pakistan politics, military of pakistan, military politics pakistan, Pakistan, pakistan afghanistan, pakistan afghanistan cold war, pakistan america, pakistan american affairs, pakistan bill, Pakistan democracy, Pakistan economy, pakistan history, Pakistan international affairs, pakistan international relations, pakistan martial law, pakistan military, pakistan politics, pakistan security, pakistan soviet afghan war, pakistan us war on terror, Pakistani ambassador US, pakistani foreign policy, pakistani politics, politicians pakistan, politics of pakistan, politics us pakistan, senator kerry pakistan, soviet war afghanistan, soviet war in afghanistan, Taliban, taliban in pakistan, US foreign policy to pakistan, US maleeha lodhi, us pakistan affairs, US pakistan ambassador, us pakistan politics, US Pakistan relations, us pakistan relationship, us policy for pakistan, US role in pakistan, war on terror america pakistan, war on terror pakistan, zainab jeewanjee, Zainab jeewanjee politics, zainab politics | 12 Comments »
October 12, 2009
At the heels of Pakistan’s offensive against militants in South Waziristan, terrorists brazenly staged an attack on military headquarters this weekend. Commandos responded swiftly, taking out 9 of the militants, capturing their ring leader and freeing 39 hostages. Despite success in ending the siege, the incident demonstrates a worsening Af-Pak situation and beseeches a new strategy.
Our administrations new strategy is defined by an increase in troops to Afghanistan, focusing military efforts squarely on Al Qaeda (less focus on Taliban) and expanded funding to Pakistan by way of the Kerry Lugar bill. And while the troop surge and emphasis on Al Qaeda are debated at length in D.C., the Pakistani media is abuzz on the Kerry Lugar bill. There are calls by The Awami League Party (representing the NWFP regions & a predominantly Pashtun population) that the bill allow for an “uninterrupted flow of non military assistance” while other politicians vouch against the legislation altogether. Tehrik-e-Insaaf chairman Imran Khan said the bill “enslaves” Pakistan and can only benefit the top echelons of government referring to past corruption allegations on senior government officials. Similarly, pundits were all over Pakistani television in the past week, echoing concerns about corruption, lack of support to the military, too many strings attached to funding, and how the bill threatens sovereignty. This morning Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi flew to D.C. to discuss theseconcerns just as rumours that Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States is losing his post becayse of not entirely positive comments regarding the Kerry-Lugar legislation. Suffice to say, the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Actmeant to extend a new strategic hand of cooperation to Islamabad is not off to the positive start intend
In fact, Senator Kerry’s office directly responded to popular skepticism in a recent report.
- Addressing concerns that the bill would invade state soveriegnty: Senator Kerry explains the bill funds “schools, roads, energy infrastructure and medical clinics” and that “those seeking to undermine” a US/Pakistan in that endeavor are doing so to “advance narrow partisan or institutional agendas“.
- Regarding the idea that the legislation comes with too many strings attached, Kerry emphasizes that the $7.5 billion annual pledge is for “unconditioned non military aid” and comes with “strict measures of financial accountability” referring specifically to Executive Branch oversight on the use of these funds.
This is contentious to Pakistan because it’s maybe the first time external oversight is imposed on assistance from the United States. And while the bill does a great job of outlining funds for social infrastructure intended to find it’s way to everyday citizens, on the issue of sovereigty, the real sticking point is regarding a potential subversion of the Pakistani military. Senator Kerry insists that the bill’s:
- “focus is on nonmilitary assistance to the people of Pakistan” and military aid is contingent to “cooperation on nonproliferation“. However, the bills funding is rooted in “significant efforts towards combating terrorist groups” and the “Pakistani military not subverting the political or judicial process” to ensure “common goals” of “security and democracy“.
This irks Pakistani’s for a number of reasons. Firstly, there’s ambiguous wording. “Cooperation on nonproliferation” is vague enough to translate as potentially linking funds to Pakistan giving up their right to maintain armaments comparable to neighboring India. Similarly, “significant efforts toward combating terrorism” gives no reference for how this will be measured.
On the Pakistan side, the worry is that “significant efforts”, according to their definition might not match a U.S. definition of success. Plus there might continue to be a disagreement on the idea of “combating terrorism”. It’s a contention we’ve seen play out as D.C. repeatedly called for heightened efforts on combating the Taliban, quitely but surely opposing Pakistan’s attempts at negotiating with those groups rather than employing just a military offensive, (a policy we’re now reverting).
Also, delinking assistance from the military is unprecedented and freightening to some because while it is necessary to develop schools, and social, democratic infrastructure for long term development, in the immediate term there are widespread security breaches with weekly suicide attacks, an ever growing incursion from Afghan militants on the northern border and drone attacks that result in collateral damage.
So Pakistans concerns echo a need for both immediate security and long term development, but not at the expense of one another.
Keep in mind, the widely held, and all but true notion that Pakistan is perhaps the only place where the military controls a country, and not vice versa. That idea is rooted in that their military is historically the strongest, most stable and legitimately accepted institution. Let me emphasize that last part: it’s historically the most legitimately accepted institution in Pakistan in an absence of stable democratic institutions never having developed. Meaning, in times of economic, social and political uncertainty, the military has historically responded most efficiently in alleviating situations since 1947. Whether one accepts the idea that the military creates a perpetual cycle of uncertainty within which to assume power periodically, or the military responds to the shortcomings of civilian governments in the absence of democratic instiuttions (chicken & egg argument), either way, the military’s been relatively effective in handling crises in Pakistan in comparison to civlian regimes. So given the current enviornment of insecurity, people are weary of a hopeful promise for “long term” moves toward “democracy” that might comes at the expense of insufficient assistance to their military who has a capacity to alleviate immediate security concerns.
I think democracy is the ultimate route to security for Pakistan, but despite Executive branch oversight and our “long term” commitment defined by only 5 years of funding, Pakistan’s concerns are understandable. Given a long history of cooperation, Pakistan is more used to US assistance through bilateral relations with a Republican government in DC (think General Zia/Raegan, General Musharraf/Bush, Ayub Khan/Eisenhower, Yahya/Nixon) and the Kerry Lugar bill is a staunch reverasal of our foreign policy with Islamabad. Perhaps finding value in previously crafted policies to Pakistan in combination with our current legislative proposals is an optimal solution to quelling the enahanced concern of our enhanced cooperation.
Posted in Current Affairs, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, International Relations, Pakistan, U.S. Politics, Uncategorized, US Foreign Polciy, US Pakistan relations | Tagged afghan terrorism pakistan, afghanistan terrorism, aid to pakistan, aid to pakistans military, Al Qaeda Pakistan, american aid to pakistan, american pakistan relations, assistance for pakistan, assistance to pakistan, attack on pakistan military, corruption in pakistan, democracy in pakistan, democratization in pakistan, democratization of pakistan, democratization pakistan, financial assistance pakistan, foreign policy to pakistan, funding to pakistan, imran khan pakistan, imran khan pakistan politics, imran khan pakistani politics, International Affairs, International Affairs Pakistan, international politics, international politics in pakistan, international relations pakistan, john kerry pakistan, kerry lugar bill, kerry lugar bill pakistan, kerry lugar funding to pakistan, kerry lugar pakistan, kerry pakistan, militants in pakistan, militants pakistan, military assistance pakistan, military pakistan, Obama Pakistan, pakistan aid, pakistan american relations, pakistan assistance, pakistan attack militants, pakistan corruption, Pakistan democracy, pakistan foreign policy, Pakistan international affairs, pakistan international relations, pakistan militants, pakistan military aid, pakistan political affairs, pakistan politics, Pakistan US relations, pakistan us relationship, Pakistan war on terror, pakistan washington dc, pakistani affairs, pakistani corruption, pakistani military, pakistani political affairs, pakistani politics, pakistani taliban, pakistans military, pakistans war on terror, political affairs of pakistan, politics in pakistan, politics of pakistan, politics pakistan, president obama pakistan, relations between united states and pakistan, senator kerry, senator kerry pakistan, senator lugar pakistan, south waziristan pakistan, Taliban, taliban afghanistan, taliban in pakistan, taliban pakistan, troop surge afghanistan, troop surge in afghanistan, troop surge in pakistan, troop surge pakistan, united states democracy pakistan, us aid to pakistan, us assistance to pakistan, US foreign policy, US foreign policy pakistan, US foreign policy to pakistan, us led war on terror pakistan, US Pakistan relations, us pakistan relationship, us war on terror, us war on terror pakistan, war on terror in afghanistan, war on terror in pakistan, war on terror pakistan, waziristan pakistan, zainab jeewanjee, zainab jeewanjee Pakistan, Zainab jeewanjee politics | 12 Comments »
August 23, 2009
No explanation can adequately address the horrors carried out in Gojra Pakistan. But these horrors are newsworthy and have potential to serve as a lesson in uprooting such inhumanity. Rather than focusing squarely and vaguely on vast historical causation that might allow factions to commit these horrors, a closer look at multifaceted ways in which to uproot that causation by drawing on recent history is valuable.
Because in some ways recent events are repetitive of the country’s history of cyclical, civilian to military governance. Just over half of 62 years of Pakistani statehood have been spent under martial law (which is bizarre, though not entirely as alarming as it sounds). Civilian regimes have been notoriously corrupt and did little to bring about democracy when scrutinized beyond the cover of a “civlian” title. Given this backdrop and our long engagement with Islamabad, Washington’s lenses should be discerning when dealing with Pakistan. But events like Gojra, the Mumbai atrocities and relentless, daily plight Pakistan’s military and civilians face in uprooting terror from in and around their borders, consistently begs the question: what is still going wrong?
If we draw on recent events for explanation, there is one consistency: Since the War on Terror began, Pakistan was most stable under Musharraf with respect to security and international standing and since his departure, the economy is deteriorating.
Correlating these successes to Msuharraf’s tenure might come across as reductive, but it is tangible. Thus, to better formulate our strategy in Pakistan given the luxury of hindsight, it could be useful to revisit Musharraf’s policies by way of dispelling vociferous censures that follow him until now:
As a military leader Musharraf’s governance deepened the cycle of martial law ultimately not allowing a democracy to take shape in Pakistan:
- Not necessarily: South Asian policy expert Anatol Lieven explains “All civilian governments have been guilty of corruption, election rigging and the imprisonment or murder of political opponents, in some cases to a worse degree than the military administrations that followed.” And the pool from which to select leaders post Musharraf offered little hope for anything different. Alternative options were extensions of the very leadership Lieven explains. They offered dynastic governance (Benazir Bhutto as daughter of Zulfiqar Bhutto) or perpetual subversion of democracy through maintaining a feudal system (Asif Zardari). In fact, the feudal system wherein masses of uneducated Pakistani’s are bound to a servile existence is what causes this kind of aristocracy to reign. This rampant subversion of Pakistani citizenry is a far cry from democracy.
- Musharraf indirectly addressed this by privatizing news media. This profoundly affected everyday Pakistani’s by spurring, fresh news, views, ideas, occupations and attention independent of state censorship and interest. Something I took for granted until spending time in Karachi before Musharraf’s tenure (especially under Sharif’s government). If anti- Americanism was a problem in Pakistan, Sharif’s rigid and religious driven censorship of television, and print media certainly did not help while Musharraf’s policies, did.
- On a side note: although media privatization is eclipsed by other news out of Pakistan in the past few years, I cite this as Musharraf’s crowning achievement. I maintain that its effects will have lasting impact on ultimately allowing a viable democracy to take shape in Pakistan by way of a meaningful dissemination of independent and increasingly globalized information.
Musharraf should not be credited with the economic growth because it was driven by foreign support funds from the War on Terror which would have been collected from cooperation by any Pakistani government in power at the time:
- Also while investments were “paternalistic” during martial law, economic growth actually did, “trickle down” as was seen in major cities. A more modernized standard of living through increased consumption and access to products reflected this economic expansion amongst all levels in society. For the first time in Karachi, I saw hired help, including chauffeurs who are part of the working class carrying cell phones and purchasing American DVD’s. Women were increasingly seen occupying positions in the financial sector and politics. So military paternalism, is sadly more productive than the civilian corruption that takes place because it means funds are at least circulated domestically, rather than driven out of the country entirely.
Now I’m not equating these specific instances of consumption and progress necessarily to full-fledged support of Musharraf, nor am I making a case for permanent military rule in Pakistan or condoning military corruption. However, such tangible developments amidst unfounded criticism and the reality of Pakistan’s history should inform Washington. A senior fellow on South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations perhaps prescribed this best in 2007:
Musharraf offers Washington continuity in the face of uncertain political transition. He is a familiar face, a leader with whom the Bush administration has established a sustained working relationship. Under even the smoothest possible transition scenarios, Musharraf’s departure would interrupt bilateral cooperation on military, counterterrorism, and intelligence matters for days or weeks—with uncertain consequences for U.S. security
In hindsight, this assessment is quite apt. Musharraf was an ally who provided results and continued to successfully expand our efforts in the War on Terror. Not just for U.S. interests, but for Pakistani interests in security and development. Had Musharraf not fired the Supreme Court judges and declared the state of emergency that wound up dismissing further justices, he might have maintained his leadership that is needed in Pakistan at this time. And I hope the Obama Administration takes this recent history into close consideration when formulating our ongoing cooperation with leaders in Islamabad.
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Posted in International Affairs, International Relations | Tagged Anatol Lieven, Benazir Bhutto, Bhutto, civilian government in pakistan, civilian government pakistan, civilian military rule in pakistan, civilian rule in pakistan, democracy in pakistan, democracy musharraf, democracy pakistan, democratization in pakistan, General Musharraf, general pervez musharraf, Gojra, Gojra Pakistan, martial law in pakistan, martial law pakistan, military governance in pakistan, military rule in pakistan, military rule pakistan, Musharraf, musharraf and democracy, musharraf in hindsight, musharraf zainab jeewanjee, Mushy sahib, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan, pakistan corruption, Pakistan democracy, Pakistan economy, Pakistan leader, pakistan martial law, Pakistan media, pakistan military, Pakistan military leader, Pakistan president, Pakistan prime minister, Pervez Musharraf, US Pakistan relations, war on terror, zainab jeewanjee | 13 Comments »
August 18, 2009
Posted in International Affairs | Tagged corruption in pakistan, democracy in pakistan, GEO, jeewanjee, Jinnah, Mr. Jeem, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan, pakistan after 60 years, pakistan corruption, Pakistan economy, pakistan independence, Pakistan media, pakistan since partition, pakistani, pakistani media, Pakistanis, Partition, Qaid, qaid e azam, Quaid-e-Azam, zainab jeewanjee | 1 Comment »